| I don't think now it's a good time to invest in China as it is near a "cyclical" peak. However, if you put a gun to my head and force me to choose whether to invest in Shanghai properties or the Shanghai stock market, I will choose the Shanghai stock market.
Sentiment on the Shanghai stock market is dark and very pessimistic. A lot of bad news have already been discounted. People have "given up" on the stock market and daily trading volume is very low. These are the conditions required for a bottom. On the other hand, everyone and his dog expect properties will keep going up for years after the current "brief" correction. There is still optimism over properties. This is the opposite of the stock market. According to Warren Buffett, the secret to investment success is "To be greedy when others are fearful and to be fearful when others are greedy". Right now, there is a lot greed in China real estate and a lot of fear and pessimism in stocks. Again I don't think this is the right time to invest but I will pick Shanghai stocks as the "lesser" of the two evil. |
Black Day for Shanghai Stock Market