| Also-- Jian Shuo Wang, this is a little off-topic but I had a question myself. I was at a business conference recently where an international consultant was speaking-- he's one of these people that gives advice to American businesses, on where to invest abroad. Anyway, he said something that shocked me quite a bit. Many of us have been planning investment in China for a while, but this consultant-- who used to be a Chinese investor himself-- is now advising all of us to avoid investing in China and to focus instead on Latin America, India and Vietnam. The reason for his advice, he stated, is China's One Child Policy-- he said China should get rid of it immediately, within maybe two years, or the investment consultants in the USA are going to recommend that US companies pull all their money out of China. I don't know whether he's right or wrong, but he's a very important and respected retail business consultant, and he said that China now has the world's worst demographics, possibly the worst in history, due to the One Child Policy. He said the policy has caused China's birth rate to plummet rapidly to about 1.6, way below replacement level very suddenly, causing a rapidly aging population with too few young workers to support the senior citizens. In fact, he said China is getting old before getting rich, thus getting old faster than any other country in history. He also said the problem's even worse since some minorities in China (like the Muslim Uighurs if I recall correctly) do not have to worry about the Policy, only the ethnic Chinese, so the Muslim population in China rises rapidly while the Chinese fall in population, leading to further ethnic conflict. Moreover, he said that due to One Child Policy, China now has a massive excess of boys to girls, which can lead to wars in later decades. He said that due to the One Child Policy, China will probably suffer a massive economic collapse by about the year 2025. He said that China should instead focus on better education and health care, which would naturally reduce birth rate while improving the Chinese economy, while discontinuing the One Child Policy. He said Chinese population should stabilize gradually to replacement, not fall rapidly like this. Now, I'm raising this issue, because frankly, I don't know whether he's right or not. I always thought the China One Child Policy was applied only in the big cities like Shanghai, not in the countryside, so people in rural and suburban China, and in the small cities, can still have large families with many kids. Also, I thought people who wanted more than one child could easily overcome the policy, just pay a small fine or hide their kids or something. In other words, I thought China still had a relatively high birth rate. But now, this consultant has gotten me concerned. I myself have been planning to invest about $10 million in China, and my fellow businessmen at the conference wanted to invest as well, so this is possibly $1 billion that we're planning to invest in China, but now we're unsure whether to do it. Honestly, if that consultant is correct, then we're not going to invest in China. But, I'm not sure if he is correct. This is your chance to prove him wrong. If I don't hear any refutations of that consultant, then I'm changing my plans, and I won't be investing in China. But if you can convince me he's wrong or that the One Child Policy is changing, then I'll put my money back into the Chinese retail market. I just need better information, and I figured that you might know something. |
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