| Though critical of this blogger from time to time, let me share some facts here: The global stock market capitalization is around 25 trillion US dollars with US markets accounting for more than 50% or at least 12 trillion. The Chinese market value last week just exceeded 1 trillion according to bloomberg. Considering the size and potential of Chinese economy, the Chinese market is still quite under-capitalized. While the short-term outlook does seem frothy and begs correction, the trend looks much higher from here. Any crash (which I doubt will happen) or significant correction (which is quite possible) is a once-a-lifetime opportunity. Compared to Russia and South American counterparts, Chinese market is much less 'crazy'. Speaking of "smell money in air", how about the following statistics for 2006 as "The Best of Times": Peru was the biggest winner this year (2006). The Shanghai Composite index ended 2006 with a gain of 130%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 34%. Nearby, Taiwan’s major index increased 19.5%. Stocks in Singapore surged 27.2%, Vietnam 144.5%, Indonesia 55.3%, Malaysia 21.8%, Philippines 42.3% and Sri Lanka 41.6%. The Japanese Nikkei’s 6.9% rise increased 2-year gains to 51.4%. Less impressive, the South Korean Kospi Index gained 4%, while Thailand’s SET index declined 5.9%. Fueled by enormous global financial flows coupled with runaway domestic Credit growth, India’s Sensex Index surged 46.7%. The global inflationary backdrop supported the Aussie and Kiwi economies and markets. Australia’s major equities index jumped 19.0% and New Zealand’s 20.3%. Robust Credit and liquidity expansion throughout 2006 supported strong asset inflation throughout Europe. As for stocks, UK’s FTSE 100 rose 10.4%, France’s CAC 40 17.5%, Germany’s DAX 22.0%, Spain’s IBEX 31.8%, Italy’s MIB 16.0%, the Swiss Market Index 15.9%, Netherlands’ Amsterdam Exchange’s 13.4%, and Sweden’s Stockholm 30 19.5%. The more “periphery” European markets posted even greater gains. The major equities index in Ireland rose 27.8%, Portugal 33.3%, Belgium 23.7%, Denmark 12.2%, Finland 17.9%, Norway 33.6%, Austria 21.7%, and Luxembourg 33.0%. Despite a weakened currency, much higher interest rates and a lot of nervousness, Iceland’s ICEX gained 15.8%. Stocks in Poland gained 41.6%, Czech Republic 7.9%, Hungary 19.7% and Bulgaria 48.3%. Russia’s RTS Index surged 70.8%, increasing 2-year gains to 221%. Stocks in Ukraine gained 41.3%, Croatia 60.7%, Slovenia 37.9%, and Estonia 28.9%. Greece equities rose 19.9%, while the Turkish stock market declined 1.7%. Other spectacular periphery market gains included Morocco 56.7%, Namibia 46.7%, Botswana 74.2%, Nigeria 38.7%, and Kenya 42.1%. Meanwhile, stock markets throughout the Middle East suffered from bursting Bubbles. The Kuwait market dropped 9.2%, Saudi Arabia 52.5%, Jordan 32.6%, Qatar 35.5%, and the United Arab Emirates 43.3%. Yields in Mexico, Brazil and throughout much of Latin America dropped to record lows. Equity markets rocketed ahead. For the year, the Mexican Bolsa surged 48.6%, the Brazilian Bovespa 32.9%, the Argentine Merval 35.5% and Chile’s Select Index 37.1%. Venezuela’s major equities index surged 156%, Peru 168%, Costa Rica 77%, Bermuda 25%, and Colombia 17.3%. |
Chinese Stock Market is Crazy