| A lot of people mentality is like who cares if the price is bubblish, as long as there will be a greater fool who is willing to buy it at a even higher price, whom the new buyer thinks the same way that there will be some other greater fool out there. Speculating in a market in it's bubble phase is like playing musical chair, it's all fun until the music stops, lights up, guess who will get caught without a chair to sit down? I don't like that feeling myself. The 'no investment options' outside of real estate argument sounds reasonable on the surface, but it's just an excuse for speculators in my opinion. To choose between 2% interest vs potential big loss when music stops, I choose the prior.. thank you.
Another observation I have is in China, buyer pays premium for brand new buildings, there may be a high price tag but no willing buyer for older building unless the location is prime. Compound with the fact that a new building only get a 70 years lease, it's like buying an option, as time ticks, value decrease. What kind of risk preimum should be added in this situation? On the other hand, if you are buying a place to live in for a long long time, the risk is a lot lower, as proven from history, money always lose it's purchasing power over time. One more thing, make sure you can afford it based on your income. just my 2 cents |
Is the Real Estate Cooling Down? - Part III